Over the approaching decade until 2030, Brazil, intently adopted by India, will proceed to dominate the world sugar market as the biggest producer of cane sugar, accounting for 21 per cent and 18 per cent respectively, whereas Thailand is anticipated to more and more play a much bigger position than it has hitherto in manufacturing and export, the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 report has predicted.
World sugarcane manufacturing is projected to develop by 1 per cent every year and attain 1,960 million tonnes by 2030, with Brazil and India anticipated to contribute 65 per cent of the change in international output quantity (38 per cent and 27 per cent respectively). Whereas Brazil’s sugar manufacturing is projected to extend to 41.0 ml t, manufacturing in India is forecast to succeed in 35.6 ml t by 2030.
Revenue positive aspects and urbanisation are more likely to drive per capita consumption of sugar, particularly in Asia the place the per capita availability is comparatively low. Asia will account for greater than half of world consumption by 2030. India will expertise the biggest enhance in consumption development. Larger consumption will probably be triggered by increasing demand for sugar-rich confectionery merchandise and delicate drinks.
For the subsequent 10 years, Brazil will proceed to stay the main sugar exporter, adopted by Thailand and India. On the import facet, international locations which have invested in sugar refineries – Indonesia, China, theUAE, Algeria – will primarily import uncooked sugar whereas international locations with out refining capability will proceed to import refined sugar.
The report initiatives that India could have sufficient provides to keep up a excessive stage of export, primarily within the type of white sugar, and would proceed to be the world’s third largest exporter after Brazil and Thailand.
Nevertheless, the federal government’s efforts to advertise ethanol inclusion in petrol is more likely to contribute to weaker development in sugar export within the coming years as extra sugarcane could also be diverted for ethanol manufacturing, the report has cautioned.
Conceding that the outlook for India is topic to excessive uncertainties, the report goes on to state that even small adjustments in manufacturing or consumption might have a big affect on the world market. For instance, adjustments in ethanol mixing goal or export-policy may affect the world market.
Within the context of India’s sugar sector, there are some essential points that deserve consideration. These embrace water-intensity of crop, disposal of surplus sugar and export subsidy. As sugarcane is a water-guzzler, India can not anymore ignore the looming water scarcity. At the moment the planted space for sugarcane is about 5.3 million hectares.
Final yr, the federal government’s think-tank NITI Aayog advisable that the world underneath sugarcane deserves to be lowered by at the very least 300,000 hectares (see BL Commentary ‘Sugar sector reforms want political will’ August 19, 2020). Logically, such discount ought to happen in low yield areas.
By exporting sugar, that too not with out subsidy, we are literally exporting water not directly, one thing eminently avoidable. The Indian sugar sector deserves end-to-end reforms in order to change into globally aggressive within the true sense of the time period. Nevertheless, the extraordinary political curiosity within the sugar sector is well-known. Enterprise-as–common will compound the challenges within the years to return.
(The creator is a coverage commentator and international agribusiness specialist. Views are private)